Canadian businesses remain cautious about hiring

The Bank of Canada’s latest business surveys show why improved sales expectations should not be mistaken for a hiring rebound. Its third-quarter survey pointed to stronger sentiment, but later responses suggested that part of the improvement had reversed. Hiring plans remained cautious.

Finding work is still difficult

In September, 30.6% of people who had been unemployed in the previous month were employed. The rate was 32.8% a year earlier and averaged 36.5% in 2017–2019, according to Statistics Canada.

That is a fall of 2.2 percentage points from September 2025. It describes movement from unemployment into employment, rather than the unemployment rate or the share of all Canadians finding a job.

For a hiring team, the figures provide national context. They do not tell you how many qualified applicants you can expect for a particular role, location or salary. A specialist vacancy still needs a view of its own market.

Companies expect better sales, with little change in staffing

The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter Business Outlook Survey, released October 19, found improved business sentiment and sales outlooks. Hiring intentions remained soft and below their historical average. Most firms expected to keep staffing unchanged. Several said automation and other efficiency improvements could help them meet higher sales without adding workers. Read the Bank of Canada survey.

Later responses, gathered after Canada–US trade talks broke down on August 21, suggested that some of the earlier improvement in sentiment had reversed.

These are employers’ expectations, not a count of jobs lost to AI. The main interviews took place from August 6 to September 2. The findings describe those earlier conversations, not hiring activity observed this week.

What to take into your next hiring decision

Do not treat improving business confidence as a reason, on its own, to speed up recruitment or change a staffing plan. Start with the work your team needs to deliver, then check the pay, location and working arrangements for the specific role.

The next question is whether stronger expectations turn into additional demand for staff and a better chance of finding work. The next Labour Force Survey is scheduled for November 6.

Sources and how we prepared this brief

Statistics Canada: September 2026 Labour Force Survey, released October 9. Reference week: September 13–19. The chart reproduces the published job-finding rates without adjustment. The earlier comparison is the 2017–2019 period average, not a September-only average. The 2.2-point change is calculated from 30.6 minus 32.8.

Bank of Canada: Q3 2026 Business Outlook Survey, released October 19. Main interviews: August 6–September 2. Most preceded the August 21 trade-talk breakdown; the report also includes later survey evidence. The two sources cover different populations and periods. We have not combined them into an index.

Originally prepared October 20, 2026, with AI assistance. Sources rechecked October 26, 2026. Jobs.ca is responsible for its published analysis. The practical advice is Jobs.ca’s interpretation of the evidence.